A Study to Assess How Radium-223 Distributes in the Body of Patients With Prostate Cancer Which Spread to the Bones

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-08-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancermetastaticpriorproceduresimaging
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantopen labelaccordingscreening
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 54.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 69 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 901 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Standard Dose Versus High Dose and Versus Extended Standard Dose Radium-223 Dichloride in Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer Metastatic to the Bone NCT02023697 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A Randomized Phase IIa Efficacy and Safety Study of Radium-223 Dichloride With Abiraterone Acetate or Enzalutamide in Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer (CRPC) NCT02034552 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Radium-223 Dichloride Asian Population Study in the Treatment of CRPC Patients With Bone Metastasis NCT01810770 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• A Biomarker Study of Standard-of-care Radium-223 Chloride for Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer NCT02346526 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Radium-223 Dichloride and Abiraterone Acetate Compared to Placebo and Abiraterone Acetate for Men With Cancer of the Prostate When Medical or Surgical Castration Does Not Work and When the Cancer Has Spread to the Bone, Has Not Been Treated With Chemotherapy and is Causing no or Only Mild Symptoms NCT02043678 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.