Blood Pressure in Blacks and Calcium (BBC) and Vitamin D Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-11-01, after 2018-03-25 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-11-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: vitaminpressure24pilot000
Phrases that lowered it: participantsmedical historyhealthbloodabsorption -
Minimum age: 25 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 171897 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 25155 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 25 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 38 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 19
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 171897 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 25155 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 65.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cholecalciferol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Importance of Dosing Regimen for the Effect of Vitamin D Supplementation NCT03272126 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- The Effect of Vitamin D Supplementation on Cardiovascular Risk Factors NCT02750293 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D3 Supplementation in Dialysis Patients NCT01312714 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D, Blood Pressure, Lipids, Infection and Depression NCT00960232 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Effect of Vitamin D Supplement on Inflammation Markers in High-Risk Cardiovascular Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease NCT01012414 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.