Combined Salicylic and Azaleic Acid Verus Trichloroacetic Acid 25% Peel in Treatment of Acne

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (35 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: controlledpastcarehistory oflupus
  Phrases that lowered it: acnepatientsmoderateacidface
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 128 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 105 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Safety Profile, and Post-Acne Sequelae of 0.025% Retinoic Acid Cream vs. 0.1% Adapalene Cream in Mild Acne Vulgaris in Fitzpatrick Skin Types III-V NCT07015931 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Comparison of Four Different Regimens of Adapalene 0.1% / Benzoyl Peroxide 2.5% Gel in Acne Vulgaris NCT00883233 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing Clindamycin Phosphate, Adapalene, and Benzoyl Peroxide Topical Gel 0.15%;3.1%;1.2% (Taro Pharmaceuticals U.S.A., Inc.) and CABTREO Topical Gel for the Treatment of Acne Vulgaris. NCT06673641 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Efficacy & Safety Comparison of Epiduo With Doxycycline Versus Vehicle With Isotretinoin in the Treatment of Severe Acne NCT01474590 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Photodynamic Therapy Compared to Adapalene 0.1% Gel Plus Doxycycline in the Treatment of Acne Vulgaris NCT01245946 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.