Efficacy, Safety Profile, and Post-Acne Sequelae of 0.025% Retinoic Acid Cream vs. 0.1% Adapalene Cream in Mild Acne Vulgaris in Fitzpatrick Skin Types III-V

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (1,813 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: postcountrandomizationtreatedpatients
  Phrases that lowered it: acnevulgarisfacialcreamface
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 95 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 0.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 15 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Subject Reported Outcomes With Use of Adapalene 0.3% - Benzoyl Peroxide (BPO) 2.5% in Dark Skin Acne NCT02932267 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing Two Topicals in the Treatment of Acne Vulgaris NCT03743038 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Safety and Efficacy Study of UHE-101 Cream in Subjects With Acne Vulgaris NCT03307577 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Efficacy & Safety Comparison of Epiduo With Doxycycline Versus Vehicle With Isotretinoin in the Treatment of Severe Acne NCT01474590 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Topical AT-004 1% in Participants With Acne Vulgaris (AV) NCT07774364 · started 2026 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.