Intravenous Iron in paTients With Heart failURe and Reduced Ejection fracTion (HFREF) pLus Iron dEficiency
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-10-25, after 2017-03-10 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-10-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapypatientsdltransplantationfraction
Phrases that lowered it: drugalcoholsingleabusedependence -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 82.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 48 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 22 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1209 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 472 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 82.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ferric carboxymaltose
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Effects of Iron Therapy in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction and Iron Deficiency (PREFER-HF) NCT03833336 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- EFfect of Ferric Carboxymaltose on exercIse CApacity and Cardiac Function in Patients With Iron deficiencY and Chronic Heart Failure NCT00821717 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
- Iron in Congestive Heart Failure NCT01837082 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- Effect of Ferric Carboxymaltose on Exercise Capacity in Patients With Iron Deficiency and Chronic Heart Failure NCT01394562 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Ferric Carboxymaltose to Improve Skeletal Muscle Metabolism in Heart Failure Patients With Functional Iron Deficiency NCT03218384 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.