First-in-human Study to Investigate Safety, Blood Levels and Activity of MP0274 in Cancer Patients With HER2-positive Solid Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hearther2ventricularblockfailure
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsdayopen labelpharmacokineticsmg
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Investigate the Safety, Blood Levels and Activity of MP0310 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT04049903 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• First-in-human Safety and Tolerability of MP0317 in Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Advanced Solid Tumors NCT05098405 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• Ipatasertib + Pertuzumab +Trastuzumab in Advanced HER2+ PI3KCA-mutant Breast Cancer Patients NCT04253561 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Neratinib and Capmatinib Combination (Phase Ib/II) in Metastatic Breast Cancer and Inflammatory Breast Cancer Patients With Abnormal HER-family and c-Met Pathway Activity as Measured by the CELsignia Signaling Analysis Test NCT05243641 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
• Phase II Study of Eribulin Mesylate, Trastuzumab, and Pertuzumab in Women With Metastatic, Unresectable Locally Advanced, or Locally Recurrent HER2-Positive Breast Cancer NCT01912963 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.