Sirolimus and Familial Adenomatous Polyposis (FAP)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 30% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-12-10, after 2017-10-03 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: or equalequal tosurgerysirolimussubjects with
Phrases that lowered it: investigatesevereobstructive pulmonaryassess theperiod -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4957 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 56 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 22 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4957 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1121 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 87.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 18.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- sirolimus
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Clinical Trial of COX and EGFR Inhibition in Familial Polyposis Patients NCT01187901 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Mesalazine Effects in Sporadic Colorectal Adenoma Patients NCT01894685 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- The CHAMP-study: The CHemopreventive Effect of Lithium in Familial AdenoMatous Polyposis NCT05402891 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- Mesalamine for Colorectal Cancer Prevention Program in Lynch Syndrome NCT03070574 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials terminated
- Sirolimus and Cetuximab in Advanced Malignancies NCT00940381 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.