Treatment of Metastatic Castrate Resistant Prostate Cancer Patients According to Circulating Tumor Cells Kinetic

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancertumorpriorprostateheart
  Phrases that lowered it: accordinglesion10treatmentpatient with
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 17195 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Docetaxel Versus Cabazitaxel Post Abiraterone or Enzalutamide NCT03764540 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• Cabazitaxel at 20 mg/m² Compared to 25 mg/m² With Prednisone for the Treatment of Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01308580 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Cabazitaxel With or Without Carboplatin in Treating Patients With Previously Treated Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01505868 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Optimal Sequencing of Treatment Options for Poor Risk mCRPC Previously Treated With Docetaxel NCT03295565 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Cabazitaxel and Abiraterone Acetate in Patients With Metastatic Castrate-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01511536 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.