Optimal Sequencing of Treatment Options for Poor Risk mCRPC Previously Treated With Docetaxel

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (131 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mriscanpriorboneregistration
  Phrases that lowered it: days beforemellitus10diabetesprostate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10914 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 32679 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 14 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Docetaxel Versus Cabazitaxel Post Abiraterone or Enzalutamide NCT03764540 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• Cabazitaxel With or Without Carboplatin in Treating Patients With Previously Treated Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01505868 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Cabazitaxel Versus the Switch to Alternative AR Targeted Therapy Enzalutamide or Abiraterone in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC) Primary Resistant Patients to Abiraterone or Enzalutamide NCT02379390 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials terminated
• Treatment of Metastatic Castrate Resistant Prostate Cancer Patients According to Circulating Tumor Cells Kinetic NCT03101046 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Addition of Enzalutamide to First Line Docetaxel for Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT02453009 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.