Efficacy and Safety Study of Intra-Articular Injections of Autologous Peripheral Blood Stem Cells Following Subchondral Drilling Surgery for the Treatment of Articular Cartilage Injury in the Knee
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-07-31, after 2015-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 56.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: extensionto determinemridetermine whethercontrolled
Phrases that lowered it: kneejointarticularcartilagestandard -
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 5997 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 15137 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5997 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 56.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- hyaluronic acid
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Effect of Autologous Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Treatment on Articular Cartilage Regeneration NCT01076673 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Study to Assess the Safety of Treatment of Articular Cartilage Lesions With CartiLife® NCT03517046 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Allogeneic UCMSCs for Treating Large Defects Knee Injury NCT05016011 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- A Multicenter Trial of Sprifermin (AS902330 [Recombinant Human Fibroblast Growth Factor-18]) or Placebo After Microfracture Surgery for Cartilage Injury of the Knee NCT01689337 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
- Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Treatment of Articular Cartilage Lesions With CartiLife® NCT03545269 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.