DS-3201b for Acute Myelogenous Leukemia (AML) or Acute Lymphocytic Leukemia (ALL)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: amlleukemiatherapyactiveacute
  Phrases that lowered it: investigatoropinion14 daysdeterminedinterval
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 26 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 157 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Milademetan Tosylate and Low-Dose Cytarabine With or Without Venetoclax in Treating Participants With Recurrent or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT03634228 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Milademetan Alone and With 5-Azacitidine (AZA) in Acute Myelogenous Leukemia (AML) or High-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT02319369 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• A Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Study of DZ-002 in Patients With Advanced Solid Malignancies or Lymphoma NCT04970992 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• A Study of ASP2215 in Combination With Induction and Consolidation Chemotherapy in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Acute Myeloid Leukemia. NCT02310321 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• A Study Investigating the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of ASP7517 in Subjects With Relapsed/Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) and Relapsed/Refractory Higher Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT04079296 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.