Study of IBI308 With Advanced/Metastatic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma After Failure of First-line Treatment

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: of studysubjectsbraincancertherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: lineirinotecanand safetyefficacy andpatients
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 49112 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8816 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• KeyLargo: Pembrolizumab + Oxaliplatin + Capecitabine in Gastric Cancer NCT03342937 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Evaluation of Sintilimab or Placebo in Combination With XELOX as First Line Treatment in Patients With Gastric Cancer NCT03745170 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Tislelizumab Combined With Sitravatinib as Consolidation Treatment Following Concurrent Chemoradiation in Patients With Locally Advanced, Unresectable NSCLC NCT05176925 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
• Sintilimab for the Treatment of Locally Advanced, Metastatic, Recurrent, or Unresectable Undifferentiated Pleomorphic Sarcoma, SiARa Cancer Study NCT05017103 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Anti-PD-1 AK105 in Patients With Metastatic Squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03866993 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.