A Study of Anti-PD-1 AK105 in Patients With Metastatic Squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-01-14, after 2018-12-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: squamouscellsubjects withcarcinomaprior
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationreceiptand safetyasthma -
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 91080 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 19322 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- carboplatin, paclitaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Anti-PD-1 AK105 in Patients With Metastatic Nonsquamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03866980 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials terminated
- A Study of AK104 in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04647344 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- A Study of Anti-PD-1 AK105 in Patients With Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma NCT03866967 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- A Study of a PD-1/CTLA-4 Bispecific Antibody AK104 in Patients With Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma NCT04220307 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- Study of IBI308 With Advanced/Metastatic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma After Failure of First-line Treatment NCT03116152 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.