A Study of AK104 in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-small Cell Lung Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-12-31, after 2020-11-24 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellsubjects withchemotherapysquamousbowel
Phrases that lowered it: vaccineopen labeladvancedvaccinationadministration -
Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 20 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 144562 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 20827 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ak104, carboplatin, paclitaxel, pemetrexed
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Anti-PD-1 AK105 in Patients With Metastatic Squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03866993 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- A Study of Anti-PD-1 AK105 in Patients With Metastatic Nonsquamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03866980 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials terminated
- A Study of a PD-1/CTLA-4 Bispecific Antibody AK104 in Patients With Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma NCT04220307 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- A Study of Anti-PD-1 AK105 in Patients With Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma NCT03866967 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- A Study of AK104, a PD-1/CTLA-4 Bispecific Antibody in Subjects With Recurrent/Metastatic Cervical Cancer NCT04380805 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.