Metoprolol to Reduce Perioperative Myocardial Injury

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-08-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartmyocardialdiseasefailureiv
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmahistorysmokermedicationoral
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 53 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 137035 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 26755 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 253 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Esmolol for Treatment of Perioperative Tachycardia NCT01208402 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
• AZD8601 Study in CABG Patients NCT03370887 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Management of Myocardial Injury After Noncardiac Surgery Trial NCT01661101 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study Comparing Two Methods of Cardioplegia in Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery NCT01444235 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Reduction of Ischemia-Reperfusion Mediated Cardiac Injury in Subjects Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery NCT00858936 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.