Testing Afatinib in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Patients With Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Lung
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-01-13, after 2017-11-02 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-01-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientsquamouscarcinomacancerheart
Phrases that lowered it: the efficacylunglineand safetynsclc -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 109 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 468 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 468 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 109 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 10702 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4883 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 80.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 29.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- afatinib, pembrolizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Afatinib (BIBW 2992) in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients With EGFR Mutation NCT01953913 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Maintaining ERBB Blockade in EGFR-mutated Lung Cancer NCT02488694 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
- Pembrolizumab and Afatinib in Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer With Resistance to Erlotinib NCT02364609 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- A Study to Test Different Doses of BI 836880 Combined With Ezabenlimab in Patients With Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Followed by Other Types of Advanced Solid Tumours NCT03468426 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- Alectinib in Combination With Bevacizumab in ALK Positive NSCLC NCT03779191 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.