Effects of Psilocybin in Major Depressive Disorder
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-12-02, after 2017-08-10 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: depressiveconcurrenttherapyqtcdsm
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsstudy willinvestigatebody -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 479 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 129 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 479 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 129 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- psilocybin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Microdosing Psychedelics to Improve Mood NCT05259943 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Effects of Psilocybin on Behavior, Psychology and Brain Function in Long-term Meditators NCT02145091 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression NCT05029466 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression NCT06230757 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- Clinical, Neurocognitive, and Emotional Effects of Psilocybin in Depressed Patients - Proof of Concept NCT03715127 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.