Clinical, Neurocognitive, and Emotional Effects of Psilocybin in Depressed Patients - Proof of Concept
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-04-12, after 2019-03-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ivriskdsmunstablebreast
Phrases that lowered it: alcoholdrugbmiparticipantsthe study -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 91 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past trials: 288 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 8 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 288 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 91 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 14 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- psilocybin, psilocybine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression NCT05029466 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- A Study of Psilocybin for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) NCT03866174 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Does Psilocybin Require Psychedelic Effects to Treat Depression? NCT05710237 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- The Safety and Efficacy Of Psilocybin as an Adjunctive Therapy in Participants With Treatment Resistant Depression NCT04739865 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- The Effect of Psilocybin on MDD Symptom Severity and Synaptic Density NCT04630964 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.