The Effect of Psilocybin on MDD Symptom Severity and Synaptic Density
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-04-18, after 2021-01-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: scorediagnosisnotedisorderbrain
Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofparticipantmgsingle dose -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 49.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 59719 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4860 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 49.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- niacin, psilocybin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression NCT06230757 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- Microdosing Psychedelics to Improve Mood NCT05259943 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Psilocybin in Treatment-Resistant Major Depression NCT04670081 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of MIN-117 in Adult Patients With Major Depressive Disorder NCT03446846 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- A Study to Explore the Efficacy of JNJ-67953964 in the Treatment of Depression NCT03559192 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.