Efficacy and Safety of Psilocybin in Treatment-Resistant Major Depression

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: depressivedisorderpsychoticdsmepisode
  Phrases that lowered it: arthritisrheumatoidthe investigatorecgmoderate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 25 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression NCT06230757 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• The Effect of Psilocybin on MDD Symptom Severity and Synaptic Density NCT04630964 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• A Randomised, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Orvepitant in Subjects With Major Depressive Disorder NCT00880048 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• The Safety and Efficacy of Brexpiprazole as Adjunctive Therapy in the Treatment of Major Depressive Disorder NCT03487198 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety Study of SPD489 in Combination With an Antidepressant in the Treatment of Adults With Major Depressive Disorder NCT01436162 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.