Safety and Tolerability of PF-06649751 in Parkinson's Disease Patients With Motor Fluctuations

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 56% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-10-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: long termterm safetythe longextensionparkinson disease
  Phrases that lowered it: investigate theto investigateevaluatepatientsdays
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1659 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 139 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 87 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 3 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of PF-06649751 in Parkinson's Disease Patients With Motor Fluctuations NCT02687542 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of PF-06649751 in Parkinson's Disease Patients at Early Stage of the Disease NCT02847650 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of PF-06649751 in Subjects With Idiopathic Parkinson's Disease NCT02373072 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety And Tolerability Study In Subjects With Parkinson's Disease NCT02006290 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• PF-06669571 In Subjects With Idiopathic Parkinson's Disease NCT02565628 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.