Standard Chemotherapy vs Immunotherapie in 2nd Line Treatment of MSI Colorectal Mestastatic Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-03-01, after 2018-04-24 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chemotherapycancermetastaticcarcinomapatient
Phrases that lowered it: accordingasthmaantiefficacy andhepatic -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 22 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 97503 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 15791 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 89.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 26.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- aflibercept, avelumab, bevacizumab, cetuximab, panitumumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- FOLFIRI + Cetuximab + Avelumab RAS Wild-type CRC NCT05217069 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
- mFOLFOX6+Bevacizumab+PD-1 Monoclonal Antibody in Local Advanced MSS CRC NCT04895137 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of the Safety and the Tolerability of Durvalumab Plus Tremelimumab Combined With FOLFOX in mCRC NCT03202758 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- Optimal Anti-EGFR Treatment of mCRC Patients With Low-Frequency RAS Mutation NCT04034173 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
- M7824 in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer or With Advanced Solid Tumors With Microsatellite Instability NCT03436563 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.