Long-term Extension to Study AC-058B301 to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Disease Control of Ponesimod 20 mg in Patients With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-01-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsextensionlong termmstolerability
  Phrases that lowered it: to investigateinvestigate thedaythe efficacy20
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 78 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clinical Study to Investigate the Long-term Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Ponesimod in Patients With Relapsing-remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01093326 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Extension Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Natalizumab in Japanese Participants With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01416155 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Long Term Safety and Efficacy Study of Tolebrutinib (SAR442168) in Participants With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT03996291 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Oral Ponesimod Versus Teriflunomide In Relapsing MUltiple Sclerosis NCT02425644 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (PPMS) Study of Bruton's Tyrosine Kinase (BTK) Inhibitor Tolebrutinib (SAR442168) (PERSEUS) NCT04458051 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.