PemVin vs Vin in Previously Treated Metastatic Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-04-15, after 2017-02-17 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancermetastatic breastcellchemotherapyrecurrent
Phrases that lowered it: resistantdrugslesionsusedpreviously -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 186 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 376 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 376 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 186 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 14961 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1731 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 27.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- pemetrexed, vinorelbine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Trial of Vinflunine Plus Capecitabine in Advanced Breast Cancer NCT01095003 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Trial of Vinflunine Versus Alkylating Agent in Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01091168 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- A Phase 3 Randomized, Placebo-controlled Trial of Carboplatin and Paclitaxel With or Without Veliparib (ABT-888) in HER2-negative Metastatic or Locally Advanced Unresectable BRCA-associated Breast Cancer NCT02163694 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Vinorelbine Oral Plus Capecitabine Combination In Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00706069 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Vinorelbine Metronomic Plus Lapatinib for Overexpressing HER-2 Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00754702 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.