AMP002 Phase III Contraceptive Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-11-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectpregnancymonths afterwomenvaginal
  Phrases that lowered it: safety ofthe investigatorscreeningefficacy andexamination
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 35 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Contraceptive Efficacy & Safety of Phexxi™ (Previously Known as Amphora) Gel Compared to Conceptrol Vaginal Gel NCT01306331 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Dapivirine Vaginal Ring in Post-menopausal Women NCT02010593 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Multi-center, Open-label, Randomized, Parallel Group Study to Evaluate Pharmacokinetic Profile, Effects on the Mechanisms of Contraceptive Efficacy and Safety of Two Progestin-only Patches Containing Different Doses of Levonorgestrel (LNG) NCT01166412 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Dose-finding Study to Evaluate the Effect of a Contraceptive Vaginal Ring, Releasing Nestorone® and Estradiol, on Cycle Control, Ovulation Inhibition, and Pharmacokinetics in Normal Cycling Women NCT01586000 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Safety, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics, and Disintegration Time of Vaginal Tablets Containing Tenofovir and/or Emtricitabine NCT01694407 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.