Safety and Efficacy Study of SUN-131 Transdermal System (TDS) as Compared to Placebo TDS in Patients With a Chalazion

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-08-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: purposeeyeactiveocularinfection
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacyand safetyevaluate theto evaluatesafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 6 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 18 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Study of SUN 131 TDS as Compared to Placebo TDS in Adult Patients With a Chalazion NCT02338648 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Randomized and Open Label Study for Safety and Efficacy of DBI-102 vs. Vehicle vs. Hydroquinone on Skin Pigmentation and Lentigos NCT05511948 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Study of Safety, Tolerability and Effectiveness of A-101 in Subjects With Seborrheic Keratosis NCT01986920 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Solar Lentigines Treatment With the Triple Combination Cream NCT00975312 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled, Double-Blind Study of SUN13834 in Adult Subjects With Atopic Dermatitis NCT00717769 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.