A Study of DS-8201a in Metastatic Breast Cancer Previously Treated With Trastuzumab Emtansine (T-DM1)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2metastatictumortrastuzumab
  Phrases that lowered it: protocol definedparticipantsafety ofother protocolhas history
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 160 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• DS-8201a in Pre-treated HER2 Breast Cancer That Cannot be Surgically Removed or Has Spread [DESTINY-Breast02] NCT03523585 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Phase 1 Study to Evaluate the Effect of DS-8201a on the QT/QTc Interval and Pharmacokinetics in HER2-Expressing Breast Cancer NCT03366428 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Study of DS-8201a in Subjects With Advanced Solid Malignant Tumors NCT02564900 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• DS-8201a in Patients With Cancer That Tests Positive for Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2) Protein NCT03368196 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• DS-8201a in Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Expressing or -Mutated Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03505710 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.