DS-8201a in Pre-treated HER2 Breast Cancer That Cannot be Surgically Removed or Has Spread [DESTINY-Breast02]

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancermetastaticunresectableher2breast
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsmaleopen labelcomparefemale
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 167 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 86647 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 15 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12629 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of DS-8201a in Metastatic Breast Cancer Previously Treated With Trastuzumab Emtansine (T-DM1) NCT03248492 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Trastuzumab Deruxtecan With Nivolumab in Advanced Breast and Urothelial Cancer NCT03523572 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• DS-8201a in Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Expressing or -Mutated Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03505710 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Trastuzumab Emtansine (Trastuzumab-MCC-DM1) vs. Trastuzumab (Herceptin®) and Docetaxel (Taxotere®) in Patients With Metastatic HER2-positive Breast Cancer Who Have Not Received Prior Chemotherapy for Metastatic Disease NCT00679341 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• A Study of Tucatinib Plus Trastuzumab Deruxtecan in HER2+ Breast Cancer NCT04539938 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.