A Study of Tucatinib Plus Trastuzumab Deruxtecan in HER2+ Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2metastatictrastuzumabmetastases
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsclinicaleffectlesionsbody
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 40.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Tucatinib vs. Placebo in Combination With Capecitabine & Trastuzumab in Patients With Advanced HER2+ Breast Cancer NCT02614794 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of the Combination of Trastuzumab Plus TUCAtinib Plus viNorelbine in Patients With HER2-positive Non-resectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT05583110 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Tucatinib, Palbociclib and Letrozole in Metastatic Hormone Receptor Positive and HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT03054363 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Testing the Drug Atezolizumab or Placebo With Usual Therapy in First-Line HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03199885 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
• A Study of U3-1402 (Patritumab Deruxtecan) in Subjects With Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT04699630 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.