A Study of Tucatinib vs. Placebo in Combination With Capecitabine & Trastuzumab in Patients With Advanced HER2+ Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2trastuzumabmetastatic breastbrain
  Phrases that lowered it: participantspatients whoarmstudy willrenal function
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 22 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 48027 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Tucatinib Plus Trastuzumab Deruxtecan in HER2+ Breast Cancer NCT04539938 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of the Combination of Trastuzumab Plus TUCAtinib Plus viNorelbine in Patients With HER2-positive Non-resectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT05583110 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Cabazitaxel Plus Lapatinib as Therapy for HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer Patients With Intracranial Metastases NCT01934894 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• HKI-272 for HER2-Positive Breast Cancer and Brain Metastases NCT01494662 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Tucatinib, Palbociclib and Letrozole in Metastatic Hormone Receptor Positive and HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT03054363 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.