Radiation Therapy With Durvalumab or Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Locoregionally Advanced Head and Neck Cancer Who Cannot Take Cisplatin

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (56 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: determinebowelcolitisradiationcells
  Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferaseindextrialbodyrespiratory
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 170 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1163 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Reduced-Dose Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy With or Without Cisplatin in Treating Patients With Advanced Oropharyngeal Cancer NCT02254278 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Cisplatin, Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy, and Pembrolizumab in Treating Patients With Stage III-IV Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT02775812 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Ipilimumab, Nivolumab, and Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With HPV Positive Advanced Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03799445 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Radiation Therapy With Cisplatin or Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Oropharyngeal Cancer NCT01302834 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Nivolumab in Combination With Paclitaxel in Subjects With Head and Neck Cancer Unable for Cisplatin-based Chemotherapy (NIVOTAX) NCT04282109 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.