The Effect of BMS-986195 Combined With an Oral Contraceptive (Ethinyl Estradiol/Norethindrone) in Healthy Female Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (238 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-01-30, after 2017-09-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellsnegativerecurrentbmsstatus
Phrases that lowered it: healthykgeffect ofthe effectthe pharmacokinetics -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 50.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 121 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 584 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 40 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 584 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 121 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 24441 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2681 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 50.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ethinyl estradiol, norethindrone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- The Effect of BMS-986165 Combined With an Oral Contraceptive (Ethinyl Estradiol/Norethindrone) in Healthy Female Patients NCT03262727 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Study Measuring the Effectiveness of BMS-986256 Combined With Oral Contraceptive in Healthy Female Participants NCT04016753 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- The Effect of BMS-986142 on the Pharmacokinetics of a Combined Oral Contraceptive (OC) Containing Ethinyl Estradiol (EE) and Norethindrone Acetate (NET) in Healthy Female Subjects NCT02832180 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Study to Characterize the Drug Levels of an Oral Contraceptive With and Without BMS-986166 in Healthy Female Participants of Childbearing Potential NCT04934696 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Study of Combined Oral Contraceptive Effects in Female Subjects NCT02157467 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.