A Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Anakinra in the Treatment of Still's Disease (SJIA and AOSD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorto randomizationrituximabreceptornegative
  Phrases that lowered it: arthritisweeksdoseprotein12
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Canakinumab for Treatment of Adult-onset Still's Disease NCT02204293 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
• An Efficacy and Safety Study of GNR-086 (Canakinumab Biosimilar) and Ilaris® in Patients With Adult-onset Still's Disease NCT06497491 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Therapeutic Use of Tadekinig Alfa in Adult-onset Still's Disease NCT02398435 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Efficacy of KPL-404 in Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis With Inadequate Response or Intolerance to at Least One Biologic Disease-modifying Anti-rheumatic Drug or a Janus Kinase Inhibitor NCT05198310 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Two Dosing Regimens of Olokizumab (OKZ), Compared to Placebo, in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Were Taking an Existing Medication Called a Tumour Necrosis Factor Alpha Inhibitor But Had Active Disease NCT02760433 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.