Study to Assess the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Efficacy of KPL-404 in Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis With Inadequate Response or Intolerance to at Least One Biologic Disease-modifying Anti-rheumatic Drug or a Janus Kinase Inhibitor

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomacelltherapytreatedprior
  Phrases that lowered it: dayvaccinepharmacokineticsoralecg
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of JNJ-40346527 in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Despite Disease-modifying Antirheumatic Drug Therapy NCT01597739 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Phase IIb Study of Evobrutinib in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT03233230 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Two Dosing Regimens of Olokizumab (OKZ), Compared to Placebo, in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Were Taking an Existing Medication Called a Tumour Necrosis Factor Alpha Inhibitor But Had Active Disease NCT02760433 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• GLPG0259 in Methotrexate-refractory Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01211249 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate SAR441566 Efficacy and Safety in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT06073093 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.