Phase IIb Study of Evobrutinib in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to screeningpriorto dosinginsulinstable
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsjointarthritisrheumatoid
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Efficacy of KPL-404 in Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis With Inadequate Response or Intolerance to at Least One Biologic Disease-modifying Anti-rheumatic Drug or a Janus Kinase Inhibitor NCT05198310 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Clinical Effects of Multiple Rising Subcutaneous Doses of BI 655064 in Healthy Volunteers and in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients With Prior Inadequate Response to Methotrexate Therapy NCT01751776 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Efavaleukin Alfa in Subjects With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT03410056 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
• GLPG0259 in Methotrexate-refractory Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01211249 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• Combination Therapy of F8IL10 and Methotrexate in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients NCT02076659 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.