Use of Adipose Derived Regenerative Cells in Bilateral Femoral Head Osteonecrosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (3,836 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-06-28, after 2017-11-15 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-06-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientscellschemotherapycancerbone
Phrases that lowered it: healthyhiparticularclinicalproduct -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 22 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 769 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 229 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 22 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 769 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 229 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 101 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 16 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 99.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ringer s
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Evaluation of Mesenchymal Stem Cells to Treat Avascular Necrosis of the Hip NCT02065167 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- Evaluate the Effect of Bone Marrow Derived Cd133+ Cells in Patient With Osteonecrosis of Femoral Head NCT01198080 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Study on Autologous Osteoblastic Cells Implantation to Early Stage Osteonecrosis of the Femoral Head NCT01529008 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
- Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Osteonecrosis of the Femoral Head NCT01605383 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- A Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of JointStem in Treatment of Osteoarthritis NCT03990805 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.