Phase II Trial of Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab in Patients With Renal Medullary Carcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-11-21, after 2018-05-29 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartreceivecancerbowelpatients must
Phrases that lowered it: drugsarthritisrheumatoidpatients whorna -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13479 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 37064 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 87.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 735 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 27.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 227 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 37064 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 13479 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 87.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 29.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ipilimumab, nivolumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Tailored ImmunoTherapy Approach With Nivolumab in Subjects With Metastatic or Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT02917772 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab (Anti-PD-1) and AMG386 (Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumor NCT03239145 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- Treatment of Advanced Melanoma With MK-3475 and Peginterferon NCT02112032 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- Nivolumab in Patients With Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Who Have Progresses During or After Prior Systemic Anti-angiogenic Regimen NCT03013335 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab Before Surgery for the Treatment of Mismatch Repair Deficient Locally Advanced Solid Cancers NCT04082572 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.