Effects of Probiotics on Symptoms of Depression

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (146 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: braindepressionto assessimagingassess the
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsthe trialparticipantproductshealth
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Probiotic to Modulate Psychological Stress NCT04125810 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• The Safety, Efficacy, and Tolerability of Microbial Ecosystem Therapeutic-2 in People With Major Depression and/or Generalized Anxiety Disorder NCT04052451 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Effect of Probiotic Supplement on Improvement of Depressive Symptoms in Patients With Substance-Induced Depressive Disorder NCT06790823 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Minocycline as Adjunctive Treatment for Treatment Resistant Depression NCT03947827 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• N-Acetyl Cysteine and Aspirin as an Adjunctive Treatment for Bipolar Disorder NCT01797575 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.