Effect of Probiotic Supplement on Improvement of Depressive Symptoms in Patients With Substance-Induced Depressive Disorder

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (69 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: symptomsprimaryplacebo controlledadequateblind placebo
  Phrases that lowered it: effect ofbetween 18clinicaldiseasesaged
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 79 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effects of Probiotics on Symptoms of Depression NCT03277586 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of NBI-1065845 in Adults With Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) NCT05203341 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of SAGE-217 Compared to Placebo in Adult Participants With Comorbid Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and Insomnia NCT03771664 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• Effect of Lactobacillus Plantarum 299v Supplementation on Major Depression Treatment NCT02469545 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Rapid Antidepressant Effects of Leucine NCT03079297 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.