Visnadine, Prenylflavonoids and Bovine Colostrum to Treat Vulvovaginal Atrophy in Postmenopausal Women

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: womenpostnewactiveprospective
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate thesmokersdiseasescontaininghealth
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Safety and Efficacy Study of Estradiol Vaginal Capsule in Postmenopausal Women With Vulvovaginal Atrophy NCT02670785 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Study of Oxytocin to Treat Vaginal Atrophy in Postmenopausal Women NCT01432470 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Safety & Efficacy WC3011 (Estradiol Vaginal Cream) in the Treatment of Vulvovaginal Atrophy in Postmenopausal Women NCT01400776 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Investigation of Efficacy and Tolerability of a Lactic Acid Containing Vaginal Suppository in Post-menopausal Women With VVA NCT04222647 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Sexual Penetration Pain in Postmenopausal Women: A Topical Botanical Drug Treatment NCT03682601 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.