Phase 1/2 Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ATA188 in Subjects With Progressive Multiple Sclerosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (95 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2024-01-17, after 2017-10-19 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-01-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: celltherapycanceruncontrolledprogressive
Phrases that lowered it: participantevaluate theeffect ofthe effectto evaluate -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Keywords listed: 15 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 15 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, infectious disease, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Efficacy and Safety of M2951 in Participants With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT02975349 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
- Natalizumab (BG00002, Tysabri) Study in Japanese Participants With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) NCT01440101 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Alemtuzumab in Pediatric Patients With RRMS With Disease Activity on Prior DMT NCT03368664 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Characterize Subcutaneous or Intravenous Alemtuzumab in Patients With Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT02583594 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- TMP001 in Relapsing-remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT02686788 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.