Study for the Treatment of Ocular Chronic Graft-Versus-Host Disease (GVHD) With Amniotic Fluid Eye Drops (AFED)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (283 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: grafttransplantcelltransplantationplacebo controlled
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whodays beforetreatment ofthe treatmentcriteria patients
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 85 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 282 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Randomized, Controlled, Double-Masked, Clinical Trial of Autologous Serum Eye Drops for Severe Ocular Chronic Graft-versus-Host Disease (GVHD) in Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant (HSCT) Patients NCT01972438 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• Amniotic Membrane Treatment for Hyposecretory Dry Eye NCT05598242 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Topical Fibrinogen-Depleted Human Platelet Lysate in Patients With Dry Eye Secondary to Graft vs. Host Disease NCT03414645 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Study of ST266 Eye Drops in Treating Dry Eye NCT02369861 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of Lifitegrast in Subjects With Dry Eye NCT01743729 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.