Topical Fibrinogen-Depleted Human Platelet Lysate in Patients With Dry Eye Secondary to Graft vs. Host Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (41 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-02-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: surgeryeyepatientsyndromegraft
  Phrases that lowered it: drugthe studydays beforetopicaljudged
• Collaborators: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of GRF312 5% in Participants With Dry Eye Disease (DED). NCT07264517 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of a New Artificial Tear Formulation Compared With Systane Ultra Multidose in Participants With Dry Eye Disease NCT04393441 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Study of OT202 in Treating Moderate to Severe Dry Eye NCT06435182 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Phase 2, Multi-center, Randomized, Double- Masked and Placebo-Controlled Study of YP-P10 Ophthalmic Solution Compared to Placebo in Subjects With Dry Eye (ICECAP 1) NCT05467293 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Research Study To See How Well An Eye Drop (SURF-200) Works, What Side Effects There Are, And To Compare It With Vehicle In Subjects With An Episodic Flare-Up of Dry Eye Disease NCT04734210 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.