Research Study To See How Well An Eye Drop (SURF-200) Works, What Side Effects There Are, And To Compare It With Vehicle In Subjects With An Episodic Flare-Up of Dry Eye Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationsubject hassubjects mustpotentialor equal
  Phrases that lowered it: the studyvisitdrugdayoral
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 10784 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 87.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Research Study To See How Well an Eye Drop, SURF-100 (A Mycophenolic Acid/Betamethasone Sodium Phosphate Combination), Works and What Side Effects There Are in Subjects With Dry Eye Disease NCT04734197 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• The Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of OK-101 in Subjects With Dry Eye Disease NCT05759208 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Study to See How Well an Eye Drop, SURF-201, Works and What Side Effects There Are in Cataract Surgery Subjects NCT04324359 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Phase 2, Multi-center, Randomized, Double- Masked and Placebo-Controlled Study of YP-P10 Ophthalmic Solution Compared to Placebo in Subjects With Dry Eye (ICECAP 1) NCT05467293 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of GRF312 5% in Participants With Dry Eye Disease (DED). NCT07264517 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.