A Research Study To See How Well an Eye Drop, SURF-100 (A Mycophenolic Acid/Betamethasone Sodium Phosphate Combination), Works and What Side Effects There Are in Subjects With Dry Eye Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-03-25, after 2021-01-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 7 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 116187 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 18116 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 72.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- betamethasone, cyclosporine, lifitegrast, mycophenolic acid
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Research Study To See How Well An Eye Drop (SURF-200) Works, What Side Effects There Are, And To Compare It With Vehicle In Subjects With An Episodic Flare-Up of Dry Eye Disease NCT04734210 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- The Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of OK-101 in Subjects With Dry Eye Disease NCT05759208 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Phase 3 Study of the Safety and Efficacy of OmegaD Softgels in the Treatment of Dry Eye Disease NCT04181593 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of GRF312 5% in Participants With Dry Eye Disease (DED). NCT07264517 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Study of OT202 in Treating Moderate to Severe Dry Eye NCT06435182 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.