Study of OT202 in Treating Moderate to Severe Dry Eye

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-01-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to screeningpriorcelltype diabetestherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: mmhgocularpulmonarypressurehypertension
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 5178 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of GRF312 5% in Participants With Dry Eye Disease (DED). NCT07264517 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• The Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of OK-101 in Subjects With Dry Eye Disease NCT05759208 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Phase 2, Multi-center, Randomized, Double- Masked and Placebo-Controlled Study of YP-P10 Ophthalmic Solution Compared to Placebo in Subjects With Dry Eye (ICECAP 1) NCT05467293 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Clinical Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Orally Administered SA001 in Patients With Dry Eye Syndrome. NCT03723798 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of rhNGF Eye Solution vs Vehicle in Patients With Moderate to Severe Dry Eye NCT03982368 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.