A Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of rhNGF Eye Solution vs Vehicle in Patients With Moderate to Severe Dry Eye

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-07-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: eyeocularscoreof childbearingpatients must
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalmoderateto severevehicleand safety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 15.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 26 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An 8-week Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of NGF Eye Drops Solution Versus Vehicle in Patients With Dry Eye NCT03019627 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study on Cenegermin (Oxervate®) vs Vehicle in Severe Sjogren's Dry Eye Disease (PROTEGO-1 Study) NCT05133180 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A 8 Weeks Study to Evaluate Efficacy & Safety of rhNGF vs Vehicle in Patients After Cataract and Refractive Surgery NCT03035864 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• Study of OT202 in Treating Moderate to Severe Dry Eye NCT06435182 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Research Study To See How Well An Eye Drop (SURF-200) Works, What Side Effects There Are, And To Compare It With Vehicle In Subjects With An Episodic Flare-Up of Dry Eye Disease NCT04734210 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.