A Study of Subcutaneous Daratumumab Versus Active Monitoring in Participants With High-Risk Smoldering Multiple Myeloma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-05-04, after 2017-11-07 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-05-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationstablegreaterimagingdefined
Phrases that lowered it: participantsmyelomamultiplethe studylight -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 119 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 310 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2999 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 310 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 119 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2999 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1796 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 78.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- daratumumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Durvalumab in Combination With Lenalidomide With and Without Dexamethasone in Adults With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma NCT02685826 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Carfilzomib, Lenalidomide, and Dexamethasone for Smoldering Multiple Myeloma NCT01572480 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
- Study to Investigate Alternative Dosing Regimens of Belantamab Mafodotin in Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT05064358 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Myeloma-Developing Regimens Using Genomics (MyDRUG) NCT03732703 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- A Phase II Trial of Anti-KIR in Smoldering Multiple Myeloma NCT01248455 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.