Retapamulin as a Decolonizing Agent for MRSA

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: rectalsubjectsplacebo controlledblind placebotube
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsto investigateinvestigate theopencurrent
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 131 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 0.75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 40 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 226 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Retapamulin Versus Linezolid in the Treatment of SITL and Impetigo Due to MRSA NCT00852540 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Mupirocin to Reduce Staphylococcus Aureus Colonization in Infants Hospitalized in a NICU NCT02967432 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Decolonization Rate and Acceptance of a Complete Nasal Decolonization Kit With Povidone Iodine for MRSA Patients NCT05696132 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
• Phase IIa Clinical Study of N-Rephasin® SAL200 NCT03089697 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials terminated
• A Phase I/IIa Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Topical LTX-109 in Subjects Nasally Colonized With Methicillin-resistant/-Sensitive Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA/MSSA) NCT01158235 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.