Priming Immunotherapy in Advanced Disease With Radiation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-02-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerlungsmall cellnon smallradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: inhibitorsprior tommhgparticipantsanti
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Preoperative Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor for Patients With Primary Untreated or Recurrent/Metastatic SCCHN NCT03878979 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Screening Trial of Nivolumab With Image Guided, Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy (SBRT) Versus Nivolumab Alone in Patients With Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) NCT02684253 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• De-Escalation Therapy for Human Papillomavirus Negative Disease NCT03944915 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• HPV-16 Vaccination and Pembrolizumab Plus Cisplatin for Intermediate Risk HPV-16-associated Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT04369937 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Randomized Phase II Study on the Optimization of Immunotherapy in Squamous Carcinoma of the Head and Neck NCT03620123 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.